Politics can be a minefield

Bhumjaithai’s growing finesse and leverage may be edging the party closer to its ultimate goal of dethroning Pheu Thai as the ruling party after the next election.
However, Anutin Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai leader, will have his work cut out to prove he is up to the job of prime minister.
The third-largest party in parliament and the second-biggest in the government has impressed many observers with its manoeuvring and astuteness.
A political source said that despite Bhumjaithai being allied to Pheu Thai, the two parties are quietly competing with each other in a quest to expand their political strongholds ahead of the next poll three years from now, assuming the Paethongtarn administration lasts that long.
Pheu Thai is working overtime to rebuild its support base after a nine-year hiatus during two consecutive Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations.
With the guiding hand of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra — considered the party’s de facto leader and “mentor” — Pheu Thai is re-establishing connections with powerful political scions in the provinces in a bid to regain support that can bring election victory in the constituency system.
The constituency system accounts for 400 of 500 House seats. The rest are party list seats.
Pheu Thai figures if it can grab the lion’s share of constituency seats, it will defeat the People’s Party (PP) in the next poll and become the biggest party again.
If Pheu Thai manages to rally the major influential families behind it, the odds of surpassing the 141 seats in the last election will be promising.
But the source noted that Pheu Thai has been struggling to win back support from its principal ally, the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), not that there are many red shirts left to count on these days.
The UDD, once a formidable force up and down the country, was credited with handing Pheu Thai its resounding triumph in the 2011 election that enabled Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest sister, to become prime minister.
But after nine years under Gen Prayut, the UDD movement has lost strength. Many members switched to the Move Forward Party (MFP) which was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for allegedly trying to subvert thee constitutional monarchy and now reborn as the PP.
Some red-shirt groups were also disenchanted by Pheu Thai’s decision to ditch the MFP in favour of the conservative camp and forge a coalition after last year’s general election.
The source said that for a lot of former UDD members, there is no turning back.
However, the void left by the red shirts in Pheu Thai’s support base may be filled by conservative supporters, according to the source.
Although Pheu Thai has denied being a “neo-conservative” party, conservative constituents could come in handy as it tries to make up lost ground.
In order for Pheu Thai to win at least 200 seats in the next election without the UDD, it must make inroads into the PP’s support base as well as tap into some conservative voter heartlands.
The PP, which has set its sight on winning enough seats to govern the country solo, will face an up-hill battle increasing its seat tally by more than 100.
The conservative parties such as Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation are predicted to struggle at the next election. Also, because they are after the same voters, they are bound to contest the same constituencies, undermining one another.
Despite talk of Pheu Thai attracting conservative voters wanting a viable party to fend off the PP, Bhumjaithai could fit the bill better, according to the source.
Essentially, Bhumjaithai is also eyeing the same seats as Pheu Thai. In fact, both parties were neck-and-neck in many constituencies in the past and neither is about to make concessions for the other.
Bhumjaithai operates out of its political hub in Buri Ram and several other provinces in the lower Northeast. It also fared surprisingly well in previous elections in parts of the South and some Central Plains Region constituencies.
The party is known to be looking to extend its influence to Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya and Lop Buri.
However, the source warned that if Mr Anutin draws closer to Thaksin it could destroy the trust conservative voters may have in him.
A seasoned politician, Mr Anutin has been described as the leader of a party that belongs in the conservative camp principally because of Bhumjaithai’s unequivocal stance to protect the monarchy.
But the close ties Mr Anutin has with Thaksin — recently indicted on a lese majeste charge stemming from an interview with a South Korean newspaper and who was also critical of the late privy council chairman Gen Prem Tinasulanonda at one point — gives cause for rightist voters to be suspicious of the Bhumjaithai leader and where his loyalties lie.
The Pheu Thai Party’s charter amendment proposal involving the ethical standards of political officeholders was destined to fail in parliament and backing down was the only option, according to analysts.
The ruling party recently submitted to parliament a bill to revise parts of the 2017 constitution, including Section 160, which outlines the prerequisites for individuals wishing to become cabinet ministers.
Under this section, ministers must demonstrate clear honesty and must not have committed any serious ethical violations.
With former prime minister Srettha Thavisin removed from office as a result of this section, some analysts suggested that it could also be used against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who, until recently, was a shareholder of Alpine Real Estate and Alpine Golf and Sports Club.
Although Ms Paetongtarn transferred her shares in the company and others owned by the Shinawatra family ahead of her appointment as prime minister, a threat remains due to a 2017 court ruling against former Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit, according to analysts.
The land in Pathum Thani’s Klong Luang district, where the golf club and residential complex is located, was donated by a widow, Noem Chamnanchartsakda, to Wat Dhammamikaramvoraviharn in Prachuap Khiri Khan back in 1971.
After her death, the Mahamongkut Ratchawittayalai Foundation, which was appointed as executor of her estate, sold the plot to Alpine Real Estate and Alpine Golf and Sports Club.
The Central Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases ruled that Yongyuth abused his power, while serving as acting permanent secretary for the interior, by allowing the sale of monastic land to make way for the Alpine Golf Club in 2002.
In 2019, the Appeal Court upheld a two-year prison sentence handed down by a lower court. In 2020, the Appeal Court denied Yongyuth’s bid to appeal the ruling.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that there was zero chance Pheu Thai’s attempt to amend ethics-related charter provisions would succeed.
The proposed changes would “disrupt” political deals former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is believed to have struck with the conservative camp to secure his return to Thailand, according to Mr Stithorn.
Thaksin, widely perceived as the real leader of the ruling party, risks facing legal repercussions if he fails to honour the agreements he made, and Mr Srettha’s case is there to remind him, he noted.
According to Mr Stithorn, the ruling party’s proposed change to Section 160 seeks to limit the period during which ethical breaches can be considered to the time after the 2017 charter came into effect.
This means that if Ms Paetongtarn had something to do with the controversial land plot, any violations would not be relevant and she would not be held to account.
In his view, however, there was no chance the proposed amendment to Section 160 would be approved by parliament.
Moreover, strong opposition from within the coalition bloc and senators in the so-called blue faction indicates the conservative camp was not happy with Pheu Thai’s move, said the analyst.
They all warned about a potential backlash from such a move as the original intent of Section 160 was to prevent those who fail to meet certain moral standards from taking public office. Additionally, amending this section could have been seen as self-serving.
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is thought to have abandoned its charter amendment plan, even suggesting that the proposed changes were not its own initiative.
According to Pheu Thai secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong, the main opposition People’s Party approached Pheu Thai to consider the matter and submitted a draft alongside their own following Mr Srettha’s dismissal.
He was removed from office in August by the Constitutional Court for an ethical violation over his decision to appoint former convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister.
“So, we deliberated the matter and proposed six amendment points. We didn’t touch the fundamental framework of the constitution. We only introduced specifics for clarity,” Mr Sorawong said.
There is the likelihood that Pheu Thai will withdraw the amendment bill which was submitted to House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha as it has not yet been placed on the agenda, he said.
“We didn’t anticipate any issues, but somehow, we are being isolated because we are the only party in the government bloc that proposed these amendments. So, we are now considering removing the bill for further review,” Mr Sorawong said.